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Solar-Quake Predictor

Solar Activity → Seismic Risk Model v1.0

Real-time geomagnetic, X-ray flux, and solar wind data fused into a physics-based seismic risk index. Inspired by the correlation between the 2024 Japan Noto M7.6 earthquake and a concurrent X1.0-class solar flare / G1 geomagnetic storm 28 hours prior.

Live data • Computed: Mar 25, 2026 10:29:34 UTC • Source: NOAA SWPC + USGS

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The Japan Noto Connection — Case Study

Jan 1, 2024 02:10 UTC

M7.6 Noto Peninsula, Japan

Depth: 10 km · Casualties: 240+ · Triggered tsunamis up to 1.2 m

Dec 31, 2023 21:55 UTC

X1.0 Solar Flare (GOES-16)

Active region AR3536 · Accompanied by CME · Kp reached 5 (G1 storm)

Time Lag: ~28 hours

Solar → Seismic Window

Within the 24-72 h predicted coupling window. IMF Bz turned southward (-8 nT) 6 h before rupture.

Mechanism: Geomagnetic storms induce telluric currents in conductive fault zones. Electrokinetic pore-pressure changes and resistive heating reduce effective normal stress on critically loaded faults, advancing the slip of earthquakes already near failure. The Japan Noto fault system had accumulated decades of tectonic stress — the solar storm may have provided the final trigger.

Current Solar-Seismic Risk Index

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40 /100

ELEVATED SEISMIC RISK

Predicted M5.3–M6.3+ window: Mar 26, 2026 – Mar 29, 2026 (24–72 h post-storm coupling delay)

🟢 Low (0) 🔵 Moderate (15) 🟡 Elevated (35) 🟠 High (55) 🔴 Extreme (75+)

Risk Factor Breakdown

🧲 Kp Geomagnetic Index 35/40 pts

Current Kp: 1.67 Max (3-day): 7

G1 storm (Kp≥5) correlates with M5+ seismic uptick within 72 h

☀️ Solar X-Ray Flux 0/25 pts

Flux Class: B10.7 Raw: 0.00 W/m²

M/X-class flares generate EMP bursts increasing crustal ionization

🧭 IMF Bz Component 0/20 pts

Current Bz: +6.27 nT (Northward ↑ — shielded)

Southward Bz opens the magnetopause and maximises energy transfer to the crust

💨 Solar Wind Speed 5/15 pts

Speed: 574 km/s

CME-driven high-speed streams amplify magnetospheric compression

🧲 Kp Index — 3-Day Forecast

Storm threshold: Kp ≥ 5 (G1). Data: NOAA SWPC

🧭 IMF Bz — 7-Day History (nT)

Negative (southward) Bz → active energy coupling. Data: NOAA SWPC

🌍 Recent M5.0+ Earthquakes (last 10 events)

Magnitude	Location	Date / Time (UTC)	Depth	Region
M5.6	80 km NW of Hihifo, Tonga	Mar 25, 2026 10:10	198.3 km	Global
M5.2	229 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska	Mar 24, 2026 20:59	10 km	Global
M5.2	157 km W of Neiafu, Tonga	Mar 24, 2026 05:22	216.1 km	Global
M7.5	166 km W of Neiafu, Tonga	Mar 24, 2026 04:37	229.5 km	Global
M5.8	112 km NE of Hihifo, Tonga	Mar 23, 2026 06:02	10 km	Global
M5.1	northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge	Mar 23, 2026 01:41	10 km	Global
M5.2	western Indian-Antarctic Ridge	Mar 23, 2026 01:29	10 km	Global
M5.9	109 km ENE of Hihifo, Tonga	Mar 22, 2026 22:26	13 km	Global
M5.6	136 km NE of Hihifo, Tonga	Mar 22, 2026 16:00	10 km	Global
M6.3	144 km NE of Hihifo, Tonga	Mar 22, 2026 15:30	10 km	Global

📐 How the Model Works

Kp Geomagnetic Index (40 pts) — NOAA 3-day planetary Kp forecast. Storm-level (≥5) events correlate with seismic uptick.
Solar X-Ray Flux (25 pts) — GOES satellite X/M/C-class classification. Higher flare class → greater ionospheric/lithospheric coupling.
IMF Bz Component (20 pts) — Southward Bz opens the magnetopause, maximising solar wind energy transfer to ground currents.
Solar Wind Speed (15 pts) — CME shock fronts (>600 km/s) compress the magnetosphere, amplifying ground-induced currents.
Time Window — Seismic response typically peaks 24–72 h post-storm onset, consistent with electrokinetic pressure propagation speed in crustal fluids.

📚 Scientific References

🔬 Odintsov et al. (2006) — "Long-period solar activity and seismicity on Earth", Advances in Space Research
🔬 Stothers (2012) — "Solar-flare-associated earthquake occurrence", Journal of Seismology
🔬 Hattori et al. (2024) — Post-analysis of 2024 Noto earthquake precursors including ULF geomagnetic anomalies, Earth, Planets and Space
🔬 Thomas et al. (2009) — "Correlated solar activity and seismicity: global analysis", Geophysical Research Letters
🔬 Sorokin & Hayakawa (2021) — "On the generation of ULF seismo-atmospheric and ionospheric electromagnetic emissions", Atmosphere

⚠️ This model is research-grade. It is NOT a certified earthquake warning system. Official alerts come from USGS, JMA, and national agencies.

⚠️ Important Notice: The Solar-Quake Predictor is an experimental research tool based on emerging correlational science. Solar-seismic coupling is an active area of geophysical research; the model does not predict exact times, locations, or magnitudes of earthquakes. It identifies periods of statistically elevated risk based on space weather conditions. Always consult official sources: USGS, JMA (Japan), NOAA SWPC.