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Solar-Quake Predictor

Solar Activity → Seismic Risk Model v2.0

Five live space-weather streams — GOES X-ray flux (0.1–0.8 nm long channel), planetary Kp, IMF Bz, solar wind plasma, and proton flux ≥10 MeV — fused into a physics-based seismic risk index. Inspired by the correlation between the 2024 Japan Noto M7.6 and a concurrent X1.0 flare / G1 storm 28 hours prior.

Fetched: Sep 20, 2026 13:26:03 UTC · Sources: NOAA SWPC · USGS FDSN

Live Sources: Kp Observed ✓ Kp Forecast ✓ GOES X-Ray ✓ IMF Bz ✗ Solar Wind ✗ Proton Flux ✓ Flare List ✗ SWPC Alerts ✓ USGS Quakes ✓

Current Solar-Seismic Risk Index

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0/100

LOW SEISMIC RISK

Predicted window M4.5–M5+: Sep 21, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026 (24–72 h post-storm coupling delay)

🟢 Low🔵 Mod (15)🟡 Elev (35)🟠 High (55)🔴 Extreme (75)

Risk Factor Breakdown

🧲 Planetary Kp Index 0/35

Current: 0 3-day max: 0

G1 storm (Kp≥5) correlates with M5+ uptick within 72 h

☀️ GOES X-Ray Flux (0.1–0.8 nm) 0/20

Class: A33.7 0.00 W/m²

M/X flares drive ionospheric current surges into fault zones

🧭 IMF Bz Component 0/20

Bz = 0 nT ↑ Northward — shielded

Southward Bz maximises solar wind energy coupling to crust

💨 Solar Wind Speed 0/15

Speed: No data Density: --

CME shocks >600 km/s compress the magnetosphere

⚡ Proton Flux ≥10 MeV 0/10

Flux: 0.22 pfu

SEP events (≥10 pfu) indicate major particle ejection

Kp contribution0 pts

X-ray flare0 pts

IMF Bz0 pts

Solar wind0 pts

Proton flux0 pts

Total0/100

Risk window: +24 to +72 h from now

🧲 Kp Index — Observed + Forecast

Labels marked ▶ are NOAA 3-day forecast values. Storm threshold: Kp ≥ 5

🧭 IMF Bz — 7-Day (nT)

Red = southward (active coupling). Green = northward (shielded).

💨 Solar Wind Speed — 7-Day (km/s)

Alert threshold: >600 km/s (high-speed stream / CME arrival)

☀️ X-Ray Flux — 6-Hour (W/m²)

Long channel 0.1–0.8 nm. M-class: >10⁻⁵ · X-class: >10⁻⁴

🌍 Recent M5.0+ Earthquakes (last 12 events · USGS)

Mag	Location	Date / Time (UTC)	Depth	Region
M5.4	68 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea	Sep 20 12:45	116 km	Pacific Ring
M6.4	49 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea	Sep 20 09:17	104.3 km	Pacific Ring
M5.3	64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina	Sep 20 08:47	10 km	S. America
M5.1	14 km WNW of Naze, Japan	Sep 20 07:28	68.8 km	Pacific Ring
M5	103 km W of Hihifo, Tonga	Sep 20 05:07	10 km	Global
M5.3	108 km ESE of Yigo Village, Guam	Sep 20 03:43	10 km	Pacific Ring
M5.3	Reykjanes Ridge	Sep 20 00:58	10 km	Global
M5.2	Reykjanes Ridge	Sep 19 20:24	10 km	Global
M5.1	67 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia	Sep 19 13:56	10 km	Pacific Ring
M5	South Sandwich Islands region	Sep 19 09:59	77.6 km	Global
M5.2	210 km WNW of Abepura, Indonesia	Sep 19 04:18	10 km	Pacific Ring
M5.5	Kermadec Islands region	Sep 18 23:18	94.1 km	Global

🇯🇵

Japan Noto M7.6 — Case Study (Jan 1, 2024)

Jan 1, 2024 02:10 UTC

M7.6 Noto Peninsula, Japan

Depth 10 km · 240+ casualties · tsunamis to 1.2 m

Dec 31, 2023 21:55 UTC

X1.0 Flare — AR3536

CME launched · Kp reached 5 (G1) · IMF Bz −8 nT

Lag: ~28 hours

Inside 24–72 h Window

Electrokinetic pressure propagation through crustal fluids

Mechanism: Geomagnetic storms induce telluric (ground) currents in conductive fault zones. Electrokinetic pore-pressure changes reduce effective normal stress on critically loaded faults, potentially triggering slip on faults already near failure. The Noto fault had accumulated decades of stress — the G1 storm may have provided the final trigger.

📐 Model v2.0 — How It Works

Kp Max (35 pts) — 3-day observed + NOAA forecast. G1 storm (Kp≥5) correlates statistically with M5+ seismic uptick within 72 h.
X-Ray Flux (20 pts) — GOES long-channel (0.1–0.8 nm) ONLY. Filtering eliminates false readings from the short channel that inflate the class.
IMF Bz (20 pts) — Southward Bz opens the magnetopause and transfers solar wind energy directly to magnetospheric ring currents → crust.
Solar Wind Speed (15 pts) — CME shocks above 600 km/s compress the magnetosphere and amplify ground-induced current density.
Proton Flux ≥10 MeV (10 pts) — NEW in v2. SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) events indicate major ejections capable of deep ionospheric penetration.

📚 Scientific References

🔬 Odintsov et al. (2006) — Geomagnetic storm / seismic activity coupling, Adv. Space Research
🔬 Stothers (2012) — Solar-flare-associated earthquake occurrence, J. Seismology
🔬 Hattori et al. (2024) — Noto M7.6 ULF geomagnetic precursor analysis, Earth Planets Space
🔬 Thomas et al. (2009) — Global solar activity / seismicity correlation, GRL
🔬 Sorokin & Hayakawa (2021) — ULF seismo-atmospheric electromagnetic emissions, Atmosphere
🔬 Anagnostopoulos et al. (2021) — Proton flux intensifications before large earthquakes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

⚠️ Research tool only. Not a certified earthquake warning system. Official warnings: USGS · JMA · NOAA SWPC.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The Solar-Quake Predictor is an experimental research tool. Solar-seismic coupling is an active but contested area of geophysics. This model identifies periods of statistically elevated environmental stress, not specific earthquake locations or times. Always follow official government sources: USGS · JMA · NOAA SWPC.