Novel multi-variable seismic potential forecast combining tidal mechanics, space weather, planetary alignments, and atmospheric loading into the GWN-CSPI index.
KP from NOAA SWPC (3-hour intervals) · CSPI estimated per interval using current non-KP factor values
Normalized count of M5+ earthquakes in the preceding 7 days vs. the long-term Gutenberg-Richter baseline. Elevated recent activity signals loaded fault systems.
Peaks at both new moon (φ=0) and full moon (φ=0.5) where tidal stress is maximized. Distance modulation (d̄/d)³ amplifies during lunar perigee. Highest single weight — peer literature confirms 2–4× seismicity correlation at tidal extremes.
Solar wind dynamic pressure and KP geomagnetic index combined. CMEs, solar storms, and elevated KP correlate with increased crust magnetostriction and induced telluric currents that can trigger fault slip.
Earth-Sun tidal force modulation due to orbital eccentricity (~3.3% variation between perihelion in January and aphelion in July). Contributes ~10× less than lunar tidal but still measurable in global M8+ statistics.
Sum of tidal accelerations from Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune relative to mean lunar tidal force. Peaks during rare multi-planet alignments. Individual planets contribute 0.001–0.01% of lunar tidal, but combined alignment events amplify the signal.
Deviation from standard sea-level pressure. Deep low-pressure systems reduce overburden stress on shallow faults, while high-pressure anomalies increase it. Requires user geolocation for local reading via Open-Meteo.
Research & Educational Use Only. The GWN-CSPI is an experimental composite index developed by Global Warning Networks as a novel approach to seismic potential forecasting. It is not a prediction of specific earthquakes and should not be used for emergency response or civil protection decisions. No existing formula reliably predicts individual earthquake occurrence; this index quantifies relative environmental stress conditions only.